United States shutdown and its impact on the global stock markets!! What should Indian investors do?

United States shutdown and its impact on the global stock markets!! What should Indian investors do? 

Dear Readers,

Greetings!!

A US government shutdown is a situation in which the United States (US) federal government cannot operate because Congress has not passed a budget or a continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government funded. This can happen when Congress is unable to agree on a budget, or when the President vetoes a budget bill. Short-term bill is proposed to avoid the shutdown, as it extends funding for appropriations bills till October 31, while instituting a 7.8% cut to discretionary funding. There have been 14 government shutdowns since 1981. 

(Source: https://coopwb.in/info/will-there-be-a-government-shutdown-in-october-2023/) 

When the government shuts down, non-essential government services are suspended and employees are sacked (temporarily laid off without pay). Essential services, such as the military, the police, and fire departments, remain in operation. 

Government shutdowns can have a negative impact on the stock market. Investors may sell stocks out of uncertainty about the economy and the government's ability to function. Shutdowns can also delay or disrupt government economic data releases, which can make it difficult for investors to make informed decisions. 

However, the impact of government shutdowns on the stock market is typically short-term. In most cases, the stock market has recovered from shutdowns within a few weeks or months. For example, during the 35-day government shutdown in 2018-2019, the S&P 500 index fell by about 5%, but it had fully recovered by the end of the year. 

Kevin McCarthy, the Republican Speaker of the House, plays a vital role in this situation. He is a key player, navigating internal pressures and aiming to prevent a shutdown. 

The following are some of the potential effects of a US government shutdown on the stock market:

Increased volatility: Investors may sell stocks out of uncertainty about the economy and the government's ability to function, which can lead to increased volatility in the stock market.

Lower stock prices: Some investors may sell stocks at a discount in order to raise cash, which could lead to lower stock prices.

Reduced liquidity: Trading volume may decline during a government shutdown, as investors become more cautious.

Reduced consumer confidence: Shutdowns can create uncertainty and anxiety among consumers, which can lead to a decrease in spending. This can have a negative impact on corporate profits and stock prices.

Delayed economic data: Many government agencies are responsible for collecting and publishing important economic data, such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer prices. If these agencies are closed, investors will have less information to make informed investment decisions. This can lead to increased volatility in the stock market.

Reduced government spending: Shutdowns can lead to a decrease in government spending, which can have a negative impact on the economy. This can also lead to a decrease in demand for goods and services, which can hurt corporate profits and stock prices. 

Historically, government shutdowns have had a relatively modest impact on the stock market. However, the severity of the impact can vary depending on the length of the shutdown and the specific agencies that are closed. For example, a shutdown that affects the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could have a more significant impact on the stock market than a shutdown that affects the National Park Service.

 

Investors should be aware of the potential risks posed by government shutdowns and monitor the situation closely. If a shutdown does occur, investors may want to consider reducing their risk exposure by selling some stocks or investing in more defensive assets, such as bonds. 

Overall, the effects of a US government shutdown on the stock market are typically short-term. However, investors should be aware of the potential risks and take steps to protect their portfolios. 

What might happen to the Indian stock market due to US Shutdown?

The impact of a US government shutdown on Indian stocks is typically short-term and modest. This is because the Indian economy is less integrated with the US economy than many other economies. However, a US shutdown can still have a negative impact on Indian stocks through the following channels: 

Reduced risk appetite: Global investors may become more risk-averse during a US shutdown, which can lead to a sell-off of Indian stocks.

Weaker rupee: A US shutdown can lead to a decline in the value of the rupee against the US dollar. This can make Indian exports more competitive and imports expensive, which can hurt corporate profits.

Weaker global growth: A US shutdown can have a negative impact on global economic growth, which can also hurt Indian stocks. 

In addition, a US shutdown can also have a negative impact on Indian stocks if it disrupts the flow of foreign investment into India. 

However, it is important to note that the Indian stock market has shown resilience to US shutdowns in the past. For example, the Indian stock market fell by only 1.5% on the day of the 2018 US shutdown, and it recovered its losses within a few days. 

Overall, the impact of a US government shutdown on Indian stocks is typically short-term and modest. However, investors should monitor the situation closely and be prepared to take action if necessary. 

Here are some tips for Indian stock market investors during a US shutdown: 

Stay calm and avoid panic selling.

Monitor the situation closely and be prepared to adjust your portfolio as needed.

Consider investing in more defensive stocks, such as consumer staples and healthcare stocks.

Review your risk tolerance and make sure your portfolio is aligned with it. 

Hope you liked reading this article!! Thank you for your time.

Best wishes,

Dr Shashank M Hiremath,
Associate Professor & Placement Advisor (Finance),

JAIN (Deemed-to-be University), Faculty of Management Studies, 

CMS Business School, No.17, Sheshadri Road, Opp Race Course Rd,

Gandhi Nagar, Bengaluru - 560 009, Karnataka, India. 

W: bschool.cms.ac.in 

'An MBA is a financial investment in yourself'

Future of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its influence on the modern education!! - Dr Shashank M Hiremath

 Dear Readers, 

Greetings of the day!! 

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly changing the world around us. From self-driving cars to virtual assistants, AI is already having a major impact on our lives. And as AI continues to develop, it is poised to transform even more industries and aspects of our society. 

One of the most significant ways that AI is changing the world is by automating tasks that were once done by humans. This is already happening in many industries, such as manufacturing, customer service, and transportation. As AI becomes more sophisticated, it will be able to automate even more tasks, freeing up humans to focus on more creative and strategic work.

Another way that AI is changing the world is by providing new insights and opportunities. For example, AI is being used to develop new medical treatments, design more efficient products, and create more personalized experiences for consumers. As AI continues to learn and grow, it will become an even more powerful tool for innovation.

Of course, there are also some potential risks associated with AI. One concern is that AI could be used to create autonomous weapons that could kill without human intervention. Another concern is that AI could lead to mass unemployment, as machines become capable of doing more and more jobs that were once done by humans.

 

However, there are also many ways to mitigate these risks. For example, governments can regulate the development and use of autonomous weapons. And businesses can invest in training programs to help workers develop the skills they need to succeed in a world where AI is increasingly prevalent. 

Overall, the future of AI is bright. AI has the potential to make our lives easier, healthier, and more productive. However, it is important to be aware of the potential risks associated with AI and to take steps to mitigate them. With careful planning and execution, AI can be a force for good in the world. 

Here are some of the specific ways that AI is expected to impact our lives in the future:

• Healthcare: AI is already being used to develop new drugs and treatments, diagnose diseases, and provide personalized care. In the future, AI is expected to play an even greater role in healthcare, helping to improve the quality of care and reduce costs.
• Education: AI is already being used to personalize learning, provide feedback, and grade assignments. In the future, AI is expected to play an even greater role in education, helping students learn more effectively and efficiently.
• Business: AI is already being used to automate tasks, make predictions, and improve decision-making. In the future, AI is expected to play an even greater role in business, helping companies to operate more efficiently and profitably.
• Transportation: AI is already being used to develop self-driving cars and trucks. In the future, AI is expected to revolutionize transportation, making it safer, more efficient, and more convenient.
• Retail: AI is already being used to personalize shopping experiences, recommend products, and prevent fraud. In the future, AI is expected to play an even greater role in retail, helping businesses to sell more products and services.

 

Pros of AI in education

• Personalized learning: AI can be used to create personalized learning experiences for students, tailored to their individual needs and interests. This can help students to learn more effectively and efficiently, and to achieve their full potential.
• Automated tasks: AI can automate many of the administrative tasks that teachers currently spend time on, such as grading papers and creating lesson plans. This can free up teachers' time so that they can focus on more important aspects of teaching, such as providing individual attention to students.
• Better understanding of students: AI can help educators to better understand their students by collecting and analyzing data on their performance, preferences, and engagement. This information can be used to tailor instruction to meet the needs of each individual student. 

Cons of AI in education

• Job displacement: Some experts believe that AI could eventually lead to job displacement for teachers, as AI-powered tools and technologies become more sophisticated. However, it is more likely that AI will simply change the role of teachers, rather than replacing them altogether.
• Cost: AI-powered tools and technologies can be expensive, which could make them inaccessible to some schools and students.
• Data privacy: There are concerns about the privacy of student data that is collected and analyzed by AI-powered tools and technologies. It is important to ensure that this data is used ethically and securely. 

Overall, the potential benefits of AI in education outweigh the risks. AI has the potential to revolutionize the way teachers teach and students learn, and to improve educational outcomes for all students. However, it is important to be aware of the potential challenges and to address them in a responsible way. 

Here are some specific examples of how AI is being used in education today:

• Personalized learning platforms: These platforms use AI to track student progress and identify areas where they need additional support. They then provide personalized learning experiences that are tailored to each student's individual needs.
• Virtual tutors: These tutors use AI to provide one-on-one instruction to students. They can answer questions, provide feedback, and help students to master concepts.
• Adaptive assessments: These assessments use AI to adapt to each student's individual level of understanding. This helps to ensure that students are not over- or under-challenged.
• Gamification: This is the use of game-like elements to make learning more engaging and motivating. AI can be used to create personalized learning experiences that are gamified, which can help students to learn more effectively. 

As AI continues to develop, it is likely that we will see even more innovative ways to use it to improve education. 

Thank you for reading my blogs and articles!! 

Please write-down your valuable feedback in the comments section. 

Best regards,

Dr Shashank M Hiremath

Associate Professor, CMS B-School,

JAIN (Deemed-to-be University)

No.17, Sheshadri Road, Gandhi Nagar

Bengaluru - 560009

Phone: +91-9845239036

Email ID1: dr.shashank_hiremath@cms.ac.in

Email ID2: shashankmh2000@gmail.com

Should we use Elliott wave theory approach in technical analysis to study and invest in the stock markets? - Dr Shashank M Hiremath

Dear Readers, 

Greetings of the day!! 

Elliott Wave Theory is a popular technical analysis approach used to analyse financial markets, including the Indian stock market. Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, the theory suggests that financial markets move in predictable patterns or waves. 

According to Elliott Wave Theory, market price movements consist of alternating waves of expansion and contraction, which are driven by investor psychology and market sentiment. These waves are divided into two types: impulse waves and corrective waves. 

Impulse waves, also known as motive waves, are the larger waves that move in the direction of the overall trend. They are further subdivided into five smaller waves, labelled as 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Waves 1, 3, and 5 represent the upward movement of the trend, while waves 2 and 4 are the corrective waves that retrace some of the price movement. 

Corrective waves, on the other hand, are the smaller waves that move against the overall trend. They are labelled as A, B, and C and typically retrace a portion of the preceding impulse wave. 

(Elliott Wave Patterns) 

Traders and analysts who follow Elliott Wave Theory attempt to identify these waves and use them to make predictions about future price movements. They look for specific patterns and wave counts to determine the current position within the wave cycle and anticipate potential future market moves. 

While Elliott Wave Theory can be a useful tool for some traders, it is important to note that it is a subjective analysis method that requires a fair amount of skill and interpretation. It relies heavily on the accurate identification and labelling of waves, which can be challenging, especially in real-time market conditions. Therefore, it is recommended to use Elliott Wave Theory in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools to make well-informed trading decisions. 

It's worth mentioning that the effectiveness of Elliott Wave Theory in the Indian stock market, like any other market, is a topic of debate among traders and analysts. Some find it valuable and use it as part of their trading strategy, while others may have different perspectives or rely on other methods. Ultimately, it's important for traders to conduct thorough research and practice due diligence before applying any trading approach in the Indian stock market or any other market. 

Thank you for reading my blogs!! Please share it with others and write down your valuable feedback in the comment section.

 

Best regards,
Dr Shashank M Hiremath, DISM, MBA, M.Com, UGC NET, PhD.

Associate Professor, CMS B-School,

JAIN (Deemed-to-be University),

No.17, Sheshadri Road, Gandhi Nagar,

Bengaluru - 560009, Karnataka.

Phone: +91-9845239036
Email ID: shashankmh2000@gmail.com

110th Learning Session on the topic: The Habit of Savings and Investments

Dear Viewer,

I had given a guest lecture on the topic: "The Habit of Savings and Investments", during 110th Learning Session, organized by Disciples India Learning Forum in association with Srilakshmi College of Management and Science, Bengaluru. Date: Saturday, 13th May 2023; Time: 5:30PM to 7:00PM You can find the same video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hE2KzhO3tvg&t=2923s Thank you for your support, comments and encouragement. Best wishes, Prof. Dr Shashank M Hiremath. Academician, Researcher & Stock Market Analyst.

GIG ECONOMY AND GIG WORKERS IN HIGH DEMAND!! – DR SHASHANK M HIREMATH

Dear Readers,

Greetings to everyone!! I would like to share an interesting development happening around us silently, and massively. It is about the 'GIG economy'. A gig is a job that lasts for a particular time duration, as long as the project life cycle exists, or as long as the company has a specific assignment. At the end of this article, I have mentioned the details of several Gig jobs available in India, cost of education, expected salaries etc. Just give 10 minutes of your time and read through this article which could change the lives of someone you know.

What are Gig Jobs?

In the 2000s, the digitalization of the economy and industry was carried out rapidly due to the development of information and communication technologies, such as the Internet and the popularization of smart phones. As a result, on-demand platforms (ODP) based on digital technology have created jobs and employment formats which are completely different from existing offline transactions by the level of accessibility, convenience and price competitiveness. Nearly, 36% of U.S. workers join in the gig economy through either their primary or secondary jobs.

 

Gig economy in India

In India, there are about 3 million (30 lakhs) gig workers. There are temporary workers including independent contractors, online platform workers, contract firm workers and on-call workers. The number is certainly small if one were to compare it with India’s 500 million workers. However, the good part is that an estimated 56% of new employment is generated by the gig world.

 

Gig workers in India

Delivery boys, cleaners, consultants, bloggers, etc are part of the gig economy. For example: Uber, Ola, Zomato, Swiggy etc, are all part of this labour platform. As the work is job-specific, workers have the flexibility to work for more than one contractor and choose the hours of work. This has encouraged women in labour force participation.

Indian cities with highest number of blue-collar workers - related to 'Gig Economy' is shown below:

Projected gross volume of the Gig Economy is shown below:

Global Scenario of Gig Work

A global survey of platform companies found that there are about 180 platform companies valued at $4.5 trillion. For example: Uber not only provides taxi rental services, but also has Uber Eats, a food delivery service. There are other related benefits. People are using apps such as Google Pay and Amazon Pay for buying goods and services. Even in advanced economies like Singapore, studies show that the advent of the gig economy has led to an increase in credit card sales.

 

Benefits of Gig Economy

The lower price of service associated with the gig economy has generated consumer surplus, which can be spent on other sectors, with a multiplier effect on income and employment generation. Taxi services by, say, Uber and Ola, have reduced taxi fares in major cities in India. There has been a reduction in alcohol-related motor vehicle accidents and traffic congestion. Carpool and car-sharing have environmental benefits, as they contribute to a lower carbon footprint.

 

No Entry Barriers

Anyone and everyone can participate from anywhere. This has led to a demand for bloggers, researchers and consultants from developing countries such as India, the Philippines and Bangladesh. Their returns have gone up, as they are getting paid in dollars. There are also no barriers based on caste, religion, gender and location.

 

COVID-19 has impacted everybody

The beginning of the year 2020 saw the spread of COVID-19 pandemic across the world. India went into a nationwide lockdown from 24 March 2020 and a subsequent phase-wise unlocking from 1 June 2020. Among all the other sectors that were immensely impacted by the pandemic, even the platform economy and On-demand gig workers were impacted.

 

Future of Gig Economy

Companies such as Google, Facebook and Microsoft are now investing in start-ups, and even training workers, to make the best use of the online market. Several gig workers are the ones who are displaced from their earlier occupation because of online competition. For instance, does a cab driver or a delivery boy who earlier used to run a retail shop, is now in this profession because their shops got closed because of the platform economy. During initial years when Uber was operating, there were stories of software professionals leaving their jobs and working as Uber drivers. However, these days, the men in this profession complain that the reward has gone down substantially. On an average every month close to 1 million Indians are entering the labour market. Wage rates for the low-skilled gig workers, like the delivery boys are likely to remain stagnant if not go down further.

Who can work as Gigs?

Students

Professionals

Homemakers

Jobs, Qualifications & Duration of the course:

1. Web Designers - B.Sc in Multimedia and Web Design (3 years), Diploma in Web Designing & Software Development (2 years), Certificate Course in Web Designing (18 months to 2 years)
2. Catalogue Specialists - Bachelor's / Master’s degree in Operations, Business, Project Management, Engineering (2 to 3 years)
3. Content Writers - Bachelor's / Master's degree in Journalism or Literature but degree holders in other specializations are also eligible (2 to 3 years)
4. Digital Research Specialists - Bachelor's Degree in business, marketing, or statistics preferred (2 to 3 years)
5. Digital Marketing Specialists – Bachelor’s / Master's Degree in Digital Marketing, BBA or MBA in Digital Marketing (2 to 3 years)
6. Machine Learning & AI Analysts - PG Diploma in Machine Learning and AI (12 months), PGP in Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning (1 to 2 years), M.Tech in Data Science and Machine Learning (2 years)
7. Coders - Bachelor's / Master’s degree in Coding & Programming (2 to 3 years)
8. App Developers - Certificate in Mobile App Development (12 months), PG Diploma in Mobile App Development (2 years)
9. Data Analysts – PG Diploma​ ​in​ ​Business Analytics​ (2 years), M.Sc Data Analytics (2 years)
10. Cyber Security Analysts – B.Tech / M.Tech. in Cyber Security (2 to 3 years), PG Diploma in Information System Security (2 years)

 

Cost of Education:

1. Web Designers – 2 to 5 lakhs p.a.
2. Catalogue Specialists – 1.5 to 2 lakhs p.a.
3. Content Writers – 10 thousand to 2 lakhs p.a.
4. Digital Research Specialists – 1.5 to 4 lakhs p.a.
5. Digital Marketing Specialists – 2 to 4 lakhs p.a.
6. Machine Learning & AI Analysts – 3 to 5 lakhs p.a.
7. Coders – 50 thousand to 2 lakhs p.a.
8. App Developers – 10 thousand to 1 lakh p.a.
9. Data Analysts – 3 to 5 lakhs p.a.
10. Cyber Security Analysts – 4 to 6 lakhs p.a.

 

Expected Salary:

1. Web Designers – 3 to 5 lakhs p.a.
2. Catalogue Specialists – 2 to 14 lakhs p.a.
3. Content Writers – 3 to 8 lakhs p.a.
4. Digital Research Specialists – 4 to 9 lakhs p.a.
5. Digital Marketing Specialists – 3 to 6 lakhs p.a.
6. Machine Learning & AI Analysts – 8 to 15 lakhs p.a.
7. Coders – 3 to 10 lakhs p.a.
8. App Developers – 4 to 10 lakhs p.a.
9. Data Analysts – 3 to 9 lakhs p.a.
10. Cyber Security Analysts – 5 to 11 lakhs p.a.

 

Useful Websites for finding Gig Jobs are as follows:

1. https://in.indeed.com/Gig-Jobs-jobs-in-Bangalore,-Karnataka 

2. https://www.snypjobs.com/gig-jobs-bangalore.html

3. https://www.shine.com/job-search/work-from-home-jobs-in-bangalore

4. https://www.naukri.com/gig-jobs?k=gig

5. https://www.monsterindia.com/srp/results?query=gig&searchId=442b7b0e-bca9-4145-b239-8b2fb88af0ab

Going forward gig economy is expected to expand and it would help many individuals to take up the jobs of their choice. Obviously, the probability of it's success or failure in future depends upon the global, national and regional market conditions.

Kindly share this article with your family and friends.

Thanks for your valuable time!!

Best regards, 

Dr. Shashank M Hiremath,

Associate Professor, Sindhi Institute of Management,

Kempapura, Hebbal, Bengaluru-24

Ph: 9845239036, Email: shashankmh2000@gmail.com

YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7Ydp53iTxiGnO-1rSAz-qA

DISCLAIMER:

I am NOT a SEBI registered advisor. Investment or Trading in Securities Market is subject to market risk, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. None of the content published on my YouTube Channel, Blogger site etc constitute a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.